Lies, gaffes and threats ….what more can we expect from the BJP?

If it weren’t so serious a matter, it would be funny. The messiah of the BJP, it’s sole leader, is already starting to flounder, just six months after he started off on his speeches. For BJP supporters who like to call Rahul Gandhi “pappu”, this might be terrible news, for the moniker is now perhaps more appropriate for their ideologue!

Just look at the incidents of the last few days. First, Modi has been quoted as saying that Nehru never attended Patel’s funeral (though he has tweeted that the newspaper, Divya Bhaskar, had misquoted him and has retracted it…..but there is also a counterpoint made by someone that after scanning all copies of the newspaper in all languages, he has still not seen the retraction). The Congress pounced on it – Digvijay Singh infact posted a video of the funeral. The TOI carried a copy of its edition of that day that showed that Nehru was very much present.

As if that was not enough, Modi’s shenanigan of usurping Patel for himself (ET explains why he’s doing this in today’s edition) became embarrassing when he confused the Sardar’s birth anniversary with his death anniversary which is still some days away. If Modi was so enamoured of Patel, so impressed by his achievements, so inspired by his personality, how could he make such a fundamental blooper?

Then of course the other bloopers – calling Chandragupta Maurya (who lived around 300 BC) part of the Gupta dynasty (which existed between 300-500 AD), saying Alexander the great (will we be allowed to call him great in a Modi run government?!) came as far as the Ganges in the East (when in fact he stopped at Beas), and insisting that Takshashila is in Bihar (when in fact it is in Pakistan). Under normal circumstances, one would simply blame the speech writer and not the speaker himself, but since Modi makes such sharp speeches, attacking one and all, he has to face the embarassment himself.

None of the above qualify for being called a lie though. But Modi’s statement that the Congress had marginalized all national leaders who were not from the Gandhi-Nehru family is a lie, as TOI has brilliantly shown today. In its story titled “Ad bills show UPA did not “forget” Patel”, the paper says that UPA spent Rs 8.5 crores in the last four years on Patel’s birth anniversary ads. For reference, it spent just a shade higher, Rs 9.4 crores on Nehru. So did the Congress “belittle” Patel and “prop up” only Nehru? Now if Modi did not know these facts, why did he make that pompous statement? Again, Modi’s lie ended up embarrassing him as well, since the TOI report showed that it was the NDA that had forgotten Patel during its tenure! Such gaffes are not uncommon for Modi. Remember his tall claim made at Fergusson college in Pune that China spent 20% of its GDP on education? Not only was that false and embarrassing for Modi, what was doubly so for his party was that the NDA had actually spent less than the UPA on education!

There are several other claims made by Modi that may be qualify as being technically correct, but are complete lies in reality. Like his statement that the NDA delivered 8.4% growth. Yes it did, but only in its last year. Who talks of just one year? If that was the case, the UPA achieved 10%+. One has to talk averages, something that even an ordinary Gujarati businessman would know. But for Modi, that was a matter of detail. Likewise, Modi’s stance on the Lok Ayukta, RTI, CAG etc are all convenient…..with hardly any element of truth in them.

And what about threats? Well, anyone who is on social media knows that Modi’s supporters are loud bullies. They abuse, call people names, and in short try and make them shut up! It’s the same with BJP spokespeople on TV. If a discussion is not going their way, they start interrupting, trying to prevent the opposite viewpoint from being heard by viewers. The same thing happens on ground as well. A simple google search on “Gujarat – Congress protesters” throws up innumerable examples when the Gujarat government has come down strongly against Congress protesters.

This latest example – with the RSS reportedly issuing threats to writer Rupa Subramanya – is perhaps the most pathetic form of fascism ever seen. What did she write to get such threats? The article expresses a fact of history…..that the RSS had committed to Patel that it would not engage in politics as a pre-condition to him revoking the ban on it. In reality, the BJP is being increasingly controlled by the RSS, she opined. Even if the BJP disagrees with this, why should it or the RSS get aggressive with the writer. Surely, there is a basis in history for what she has written. It’s not a figment of her imagination. But then, such arm-twisting is a common part of the RSS/BJP style of working.

This aggro behavior is what the BJP is proud of, not ashamed of. Its verbal attacks on Pakistan and China, its taunting of the extremely decent Manmohan Singh, its abusive dismissal of a Nobel laureate (Amartysa Sen), its constant demands for the PM’s resignation (some 35 times by now) and its muscular blocking of Parliament is all symptomatic of what is clearly a genetic trait of the party.

The real truth is that in a matter of weeks and months, the Modi luster (as seen by BJP supporters) will be off. Expect more lies, gaffes…..and threats in the days to come. All this is being enacted in full media and public glare. The Congress must simply let Modi be…..he will self-destruct.

Lies, gaffes and threats ….what more can we expect from the BJP?

If it weren’t so serious a matter, it would be funny. The messiah of the BJP, it’s sole leader, is already starting to flounder, just six months after he started off on his speeches. For BJP supporters who like to call Rahul Gandhi “pappu”, this might be terrible news, for the moniker is now perhaps more appropriate for their ideologue!

Just look at the incidents of the last few days. First, Modi has been quoted as saying that Nehru never attended Patel’s funeral (though he has tweeted that the newspaper, Divya Bhaskar, had misquoted him and has retracted it…..but there is also a counterpoint made by someone that after scanning all copies of the newspaper in all languages, he has still not seen the retraction). The Congress pounced on it – Digvijay Singh infact posted a video of the funeral. The TOI carried a copy of its edition of that day that showed that Nehru was very much present.

As if that was not enough, Modi’s shenanigan of usurping Patel for himself (ET explains why he’s doing this in today’s edition) became embarrassing when he confused the Sardar’s birth anniversary with his death anniversary which is still some days away. If Modi was so enamoured of Patel, so impressed by his achievements, so inspired by his personality, how could he make such a fundamental blooper?

Then of course the other bloopers – calling Chandragupta Maurya (who lived around 300 BC) part of the Gupta dynasty (which existed between 300-500 AD), saying Alexander the great (will we be allowed to call him great in a Modi run government?!) came as far as the Ganges in the East (when in fact he stopped at Beas), and insisting that Takshashila is in Bihar (when in fact it is in Pakistan). Under normal circumstances, one would simply blame the speech writer and not the speaker himself, but since Modi makes such sharp speeches, attacking one and all, he has to face the embarassment himself.

None of the above qualify for being called a lie though. But Modi’s statement that the Congress had marginalized all national leaders who were not from the Gandhi-Nehru family is a lie, as TOI has brilliantly shown today. In its story titled “Ad bills show UPA did not “forget” Patel”, the paper says that UPA spent Rs 8.5 crores in the last four years on Patel’s birth anniversary ads. For reference, it spent just a shade higher, Rs 9.4 crores on Nehru. So did the Congress “belittle” Patel and “prop up” only Nehru? Now if Modi did not know these facts, why did he make that pompous statement? Again, Modi’s lie ended up embarrassing him as well, since the TOI report showed that it was the NDA that had forgotten Patel during its tenure! Such gaffes are not uncommon for Modi. Remember his tall claim made at Fergusson college in Pune that China spent 20% of its GDP on education? Not only was that false and embarrassing for Modi, what was doubly so for his party was that the NDA had actually spent less than the UPA on education!

There are several other claims made by Modi that may be qualify as being technically correct, but are complete lies in reality. Like his statement that the NDA delivered 8.4% growth. Yes it did, but only in its last year. Who talks of just one year? If that was the case, the UPA achieved 10%+. One has to talk averages, something that even an ordinary Gujarati businessman would know. But for Modi, that was a matter of detail. Likewise, Modi’s stance on the Lok Ayukta, RTI, CAG etc are all convenient…..with hardly any element of truth in them.

And what about threats? Well, anyone who is on social media knows that Modi’s supporters are loud bullies. They abuse, call people names, and in short try and make them shut up! It’s the same with BJP spokespeople on TV. If a discussion is not going their way, they start interrupting, trying to prevent the opposite viewpoint from being heard by viewers. The same thing happens on ground as well. A simple google search on “Gujarat – Congress protesters” throws up innumerable examples when the Gujarat government has come down strongly against Congress protesters.

This latest example – with the RSS reportedly issuing threats to writer Rupa Subramanya – is perhaps the most pathetic form of fascism ever seen. What did she write to get such threats? The article expresses a fact of history…..that the RSS had committed to Patel that it would not engage in politics as a pre-condition to him revoking the ban on it. In reality, the BJP is being increasingly controlled by the RSS, she opined. Even if the BJP disagrees with this, why should it or the RSS get aggressive with the writer. Surely, there is a basis in history for what she has written. It’s not a figment of her imagination. But then, such arm-twisting is a common part of the RSS/BJP style of working.

This aggro behavior is what the BJP is proud of, not ashamed of. Its verbal attacks on Pakistan and China, its taunting of the extremely decent Manmohan Singh, its abusive dismissal of a Nobel laureate (Amartysa Sen), its constant demands for the PM’s resignation (some 35 times by now) and its muscular blocking of Parliament is all symptomatic of what is clearly a genetic trait of the party.

The real truth is that in a matter of weeks and months, the Modi luster (as seen by BJP supporters) will be off. Expect more lies, gaffes…..and threats in the days to come. All this is being enacted in full media and public glare. The Congress must simply let Modi be…..he will self-destruct.

Salute the Sensex’s rise…..not politicize it

As the stock market has rallied from recent lows, there has been a concerted effort by BJP and Modi backers to discredit the performance of the government. Nothing can be far from the truth. The Indian stock markets are responding to the efforts of the government, even as they remain cautious given the generally weak economic conditions in India and worldwide.

Now I know this is political season and such attempts are bound to be made. But sometimes it sounds really funny. Like when the APCO-propped Modi’s supporters made the outlandish claim that the markets were soaring because they were factoring in the victory of Modi in 2014. The publicists managed to even get a foreign analyst (easier to tap maybe!) to say some such rubbish. Poor souls these…..for they fail to understand that what is being seen in India is also being seen around the world. Do they attribute the generally high markets worldwide also to Modi? The US indices are at all time highs, and I guess they will credit Modi for that too!

Today, one analyst has said that the stock market at 21000 is worth just about 13000 odd, thanks to inflation. He is right. But only partly. Why? Because stock market performance must be seen in a global context. Lets take a closer look at how indices have performed worldwide:

BRICS nations: Well, the Brazilian stock index (BOVESPA) is still way off from its peak. It hit a high of 73000 odd sometime in the middle of 2008, and is today at just 54000 odd (26% down). The Russian index (MICEX) hit a high of 1950 around middle of 2008 and is today trading at only 1500 odd (23% down). Take big brother China, the world’s fastest growing economy, and the challenger to the big boss’s throne as it were. Well, its stock market (SSE Composite) is trading nearly 65% off at 2128 odd compared to its high of 6000 hit again around October 2007. The lone exception in the BRICS grouping that is doing better than our sensex is South Africa, whose market (FTSE/JSE) is at a new high of 45000 odd, about 40% higher than the 32000 odd in April 2008.

The developed world: Well, the US is the lone exception in this pack as well. All US indices (Dow, S&P and Nasdaq) are at their lifetime highs, with the Dow about 12% higher at 15680 odd compared to its previous highest around Oct 2007. Of the top four European economies, only the German index (DAX) is trading higher at 9000 odd compared to some 8000 odd around Oct 07. That’s the same 12% odd growth as seen in the case of the US. The UK market as represented by the FTSE 100 is lower than its lifetime high of 6930, barely touching 6777 recently. The French CAC 40 is trading nearly 40% off from its Oct 07 levels of 6100 odd. And the Italian FTSE MIB is way way off from its highest level of 50000, and even its interim high of 44000 odd hit around mid 2007, trading as it is at around 19000 odd.

Asian Tigers: Admittedly, the stock markets of the Asian Tigers are growing faster than India’s with Phillipines, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia all doing better. But then, there are others like Singapore, Hongkong and South Korea which are still considerably off from their highs.

Any discussion of the performance of the sensex should be done in a relative context because we are a part of a global economy. A bulk of the trading on the NSE and BSE is undertaken by FIIs and the factors that affect FIIs are the factors that determine worldwide market performance. The liquidity drive of the US Fed is of course the single most powerful of these factors, and its impact is clearly seen in the rallies in countries in Asia. The other global factor is the firming up of the dollar, not so much because the US economy itself over-performing (it is doing reasonably well), but because of economic turmoil worldwide. A strong dollar, accompanied by it’s recovering economy has led to its stock market overperforming.

Another thing that indicates that politics is there in everything these days, and especially in discussions of the economy, is the way positions on FDI/FII investments change with time. When the FIIs were pulling money out of India around June-July this year, naysayers cribbed. Today, when they are pumping in the money, rather than crediting the Indian government, they are talking about something else – this rubbish about inflation. When the rupee was crashing, the Indian government was at fault, but when it has strengthened, it is the RBI (not the government) that is doing a good job. Such pathetic politics is what has taken the spirits of the country down.

One last point. The Indian growth story is intact, even as there are several challenges in front of us. I plan to write on this later, but just reading The Mint of the last few days shows how the rural sector is booming with everything from income to consumption to HDI to other social indicators improving vastly in the last 7-8 years. The focus of the UPA government has been on this sector as is well known, even though the opposition wont give credit, and regrettably the UPA won’t taking it forcefully.

The real truth is that the crab mentality of Indians, mixed with the acute political bias of some in the business sector, is trying to belittle the efforts of the government in propping up the economy. This bunch of people puts all faults at the government’s doorsteps, and all achievements in the courts of others, including pathetically in those of the PM aspirant, Narendra Modi, who has very little to do in reality. But then what do we expect from someone who’s core identity revolves around #feku?!

Desperate to become PM, Modi even willing to embrace Sardar Patel….

Modi is desperate to become PM. He knows that he can never shed his communal image, thanks to Godhra and much more. Which is why he is taking desperate measures. Including trying to usurp the secular Sardar Patel. Well, the unfortunate thing for Modi is that the world knows too well about what Patel thought of the RSS (he even banned it and held it responsible for Mahatma Gandhi’s murder). What the world may not know is that Patel practiced law in Godhra for several years. How ironical that the man tarnished by Godhra is trying to usurp the one who practiced in that same town. Unfortunately for Modi, in today’s connected world, his sham is visible from a mile.

But the sham is not new. It has been going on for some time now, as Modi has tried to acquire a more secular (or at least, less communal) image. First he stopped talking of Ayodhya (leaving the dirty job to his trusted Amit Shah). Then he went on to say that toilets came before temples (so what if he was copying Jairam Ramesh). Then he invited Muslims to attend his meetings, even doling out burquas and skull caps (so what if he didn’t wear one himself). And now, he is willing – no, make that desperate – to even fete the man who couldn’t tolerate the RSS. Give him some more time, and Modi may even be willing to get himself branded “Mian Modi”! If only all this could make him – somehow, oh Ram, please somehow – make him the PM!

Let’s be clear. Patel had extreme dislike for the RSS. He actually banned it in 1948. Here are some statements made by him in letters which are freely available: On Mahatma Gandhi’s murder: “There is no doubt in my mind the extreme section of the Hindu Mahasbha was involved in this conspiracy”. On the RSS: The activities of the RSS constituted a clear threat to the existence of the Government and the State. His famous “poison” statement: The speeches of the Sangh leaders are poisonous. It is as a result of this venom that Mahatma Gandhi has been assassinated. And shockingly again: The followers of the Sangh have celebrated Gandhiji’s assassination by distributing sweets. And then speaking in the Lok Sabha in August 1950: You must remember that when the Father of the Nation was murdered, it was by a group of people who belonged to that organisation [Hindu Mahasabha]. I am ready to prove to anybody that there was a group of people there who were determined to take his life. That aside, Patel’s views on communal politics were well known.

So where does that leave the RSS? Patel was the bête noire of the RSS. And here, Modi is trying to embrace him. We know Modi is a clever politician. And as a true politician, he doesn’t mind doing anything that gets him the moolah (in this case the PM’s chair). He knows the RSS is a liability, and he is keen to dispense off with it (the Congress is already making 2014 a fight between itself and the RSS). But at the same time, he also knows that he is nobody without the RSS. He has to keep the RSS in good humor. The question is just how far he can push it. A little too far, and he could end up like Advani when he praised Jinnah.

In an ideal world, Modi would like to make the RSS an accomplice in his fake secular strategy. Ideally, he would like to become the “statesman”, rising above communal politics a la Vajpayee, while the RSS and its sister organizations should continue with their own usual activities. This way Modi could secure all the votes – those of the extremes and the secular others.

Unfortunately the RSS is not taking to this very kindly. Somebody in the know told me that Modi’s single minded focus to become PM, even if that means adopting the pet peeves of the RSS, is upsetting it to no end. The RSS realizes that it’s very raison d’etre – that of having a Hindu rashtra – is being played in the game by Modi. How could the RSS tolerate Patel being feted? Has anyone noticed, the RSS has kept a stony silence on this matter? Patel was a  beacon of secularism…..how can the RSS come to terms with him? Remember, Golwalkar, one of the sarsanghchalaks of the RSS, had famously said that the biggest threat India faced was from Muslims (the 2^nd was Christians). In a way, Modi is cocking a snook at the RSS. The RSS knows it has been relegated way below Modi himself to a distant second position (it doesn’t like Modi’s I, me, myself style one bit). What should it do? Play along, or call it all off? For now, it appears the RSS may be willing to play along. For it realizes there is no other leader in the BJP who can take it to power. Once the party comes to power (if it does), they can always decide who to make PM!

The same person in the know also said that most BJP leaders were also opposed to Modi. But since the party’s “cadre” was in favor of Modi (maybe because they were disillusioned with all others?), they had no option but to publicly back him. But if the RSS were to just indicate a little doubt about Modi, these leaders will be out with their barely-concealed knives drawn. Advani, Sushma, Murli Manohar Joshi, Yashwant Sinha will do a flip which will make a roller-coaster feel shy!

The real truth is that Modi is desperate. He doesn’t even mind dancing with the devil. This Sardar Patel event is evidence of that. He will need nimble fingers to handle the RSS, but he knows the RSS’s compulsions. Even the RSS knows it will have to somehow control Modi, but that again is for the later. Both the RSS and Modi, are playing games. Right now, both just want to grab power. After that, they can both revert to what they really are…..minority bashers!

The bogus crowds at Modi’s rallies….

The media is impressed with the turnout at Modi’s rallies and believes that this represents actual support for him and his party. Modi’s PR set-up has again managed to con the media. Because the numbers claimed are hugely exaggerated, the people present in the crowds are often non-voluntary, and the BJP’s interpretation of the high numbers is mostly self-serving and untrue.

At the Patna rally for example, the BJP yet again exaggerated the numbers. It claimed that there were 11 lac attendees. Now a quick search of the internet shows that the capacity of Gandhi Maidan is no more than 2 lacs and even including “spill overs” outside the ground, the crowds cannot be more than a little over that number. So how exactly did the BJP get this number in its head? It’s a bogus number as all of the party’s numbers are!

Another search of the internet will show that when crowds of a million people do assemble, the gathering creates mind-numbing visuals. The crowds go on for kilometers on end and spread out radially in all possible directions (See today’s ET – page 3 – “Did Nehru attend Sardar Patel’s funeral” – it mentions that a million people crowded 6 miles of Bombay’s roads!). It’s impossible for everyone to assemble in a single “ground” – even if it as big as the massive Tiananmen square in Beijing (where a million students had assembled). Gandhi Maidan is no Tiananmem square!

I think the BJP is under some pressure with respect to Modi’s rallies. Somehow, the BJP feels that Modi has to set a record. It’s not enough for him to get the crowds, the crowds must be the biggest ever. Again, the truth is unimportant. The PR is. The crowds must generate a “buzz”. Well, going by media’s reactions, it sure looks like Modi has succeeded. But Modi’s scant belief in truth being well known, one soon starts to wonder just how true these numbers really are!

Then the BJP does another thing. It actually ferries crowds from “neighboring” areas, which in many cases include those outside of the state. Since there are no elections in many of these states (for eg, in UP, adjoining Jhansi where Modi’s next rally is to be held soon), I don’t know how these crowds will vote!

In any case, these crowds are not voluntary crowds. They have been given a free ride into the nearest town (remember, Modi only addresses crowds in the big towns!). It’s a picnic…..why should they object? Everyone has a party when on the trip, with meals and entertainment taken care of by the organizers! They can always go back and vote for their favorite local leader, or the one who pays them for the booze, anyways!

TOI reports on 10^th October (http://tinyurl.com/mwromhk) that the BJP hired 10 trains to ferry people for Modi’s Patna rally. Now assuming the trains are crammed (as they always are in India!), and they have 18 bogies each as the article mentions, then each train could accommodate as many as 2000-2500 people. That’s 20-25000 people coming to Patna just by trains! Add to that 5000 buses reportedly deployed (and there could be many many more), those would ferry another 25-30000 people. So as many as 45-55000 people were ferried from across Bihar (and UP and Jharkhand which don’t even go for polls!) for Modi’s rally at Patna – all free of cost, with no proven proclivity to vote for Modi. For the BJP, it’s the numbers that matter, no matter where they come from, who they vote for and whether they are paid or voluntary!

The article also mentions that Laloo Yadav used to do similar things in the past; the article mentions that he hired as many as 35 trains in 2007 for a rally in Patna. Now I am sure he must have got the crowds, but two things stand out. First, everyone had panned Laloo’s fake crowds then; suddenly they are following in his footsteps! And second, did these crowds vote for Laloo? Not in the 2010 state elections! Not even in the 2009 Parliamentary elections! So much for the crowds assembled via trains and buses!

There is also a competition in the BJP to ensure ever bigger crowds. Apparently for its forthcoming Jhansi rally, the target is go past the “lac-plus” (what is the real number?!) crowd at Kanpur! So the party unit has again ordered a train (http://tinyurl.com/l4trd6x) and several hundred buses! Hope the EC is keeping a tab on expenses!

So how should one interpret these claimed “high” numbers? Does it mean that Modi and the BJP really have a big following? Well, lets take a hypothetical example. Suppose Hitler could be resurrected and he could perform in Mumbai. How many people would turn up to listen to him?! Or if Saddam, Assad or Gaddafi were to deliver speeches in Delhi?! Everyone and his uncle and aunt would turn up because they would all want to see the tyrants who ruled the world for so long. This curiosity wouldn’t be indicative of support at all, as all the above named realized pretty soon! I am not saying Modi is any such person, but his “track record” in Gujarat (I don’t know if it is about development or his Hindu nationalism) does arouse curiosity which draws people to the rallies.

In contrast, Rahul Gandhi is an upright man who speaks from his heart, narrating personal stories from his life; the type that connect with the people. He’s been around a long time, and they already know him well enough. He’s a good orator (maybe not a superlative one like Modi), and one who speaks the truth (again, not like Modi!). Somehow he never learnt lie, though it remains to be seen if lying can win elections. His subjects are more mundane and local – a massive drug problem in Punjab, a huge disenchantment amongst the population of Muzaffarnagar – not pompous statements of future nothings. He gets smaller numbers – 50000 to 1 lac still – but these are genuine numbers, not including those goaded into free buses and trains. His speeches are to the point, laden with facts, and relevant to the people present – not meaningless rhetoric aimed at TV audiences. Besides, Rahul speaks in smaller places; places where TV crews would shudder to go, places where a Modi wouldn’t even know what to speak.

The real truth is that the BJP could be in for a massive surprise if it starts to believe that these concocted crowds are for real! But the BJP is in that mood right now. It has fallen into its own PR trap! It’s position is a little like Anna’s was at his peak. He saw the crowds and thought nothing but the Jan Lokpal would do. Well, very soon, he lost the plot…..Is Modi going down the same path? Only time will tell!

Indian Mujahideen makes Modi’s job easier….

The blasts in Patna yesterday, reportedly carried out by the Indian Mujahideen (IM), must be like manna from the skies for Modi. A few more of these, and his “development” plank would become irrelevant. Even without it, the sole savior of this nation, the only one who can take on such terrorists, would be elected PM.

The IM is a terror organization which the Indian government banned in 2010. Other countries, including NZ and the US, have either banned it or placed it on their watchlist. IM is supposed to be made up of former SIMI terrorists and has been held responsible for several crimes in India. It’s an organization that produces fear in the minds of ordinary Indians. The kind of fear that makes people lose rationality and start surrendering to the divisive agenda of a few political parties (both Hindu and Muslim). It is activities like these blasts that make ordinary Muslims hang their heads in shame, and seethe with anger for the wrong branding the entire community invariably gets. For the majority community, this fear drives them to the waiting arms of the Hindu parties, most notably the BJP.

I wrote this in my post of 27^th July, 2012 “Newton’s third law of motion and Narendra Modi….”: “Newton’s third law of motion states that “every action has an equal and opposite reaction”. Modi’s interpretation of Newton’s 3^rd law should be seen in the context of his political strategy. Incite the Hindus somehow, so that they vote for him en-masse. No where else in the country is the Hindu voter so united and committed behind the BJP as he/she is in Gujarat. None of the caste politics that pervades much of North India even seems to make a beginning in Gujarat. In fact, the Hindu voter has conferred Modi with the title of “Hindu Hriday Samrat” – something that no other politician has managed to earn”. With blasts in Patna, it is the IM which has incited the Hindus, and the opposite reaction will be for Hindus to unite and vote for Modi.

A similar thing happened recently in Muzaffarnagar. Forget who was responsible for the riots there. But the upshot was that the decades old relationship of the Jats with the Muslims was shattered, and their support – on whatever grounds – to Ajit Singh has probably been replaced with support to whoever else – on “religious” grounds. The beneficiary of the Hindu vote is obviously the BJP, as all media outlets and political experts have reported. The Muslims will now probably vote for whoever they think will protect their interests better. A few more blasts and a few more riots, and all of India will be cutting itself up on religious grounds. Willingly or by chance, the BJP will find itself gaining.

Modi’s apologists have already been tweeting the “Modi stayed calm through the whole scene” kind of stories. If by this they mean that Modi wasn’t shaken and stirred out of fear, they are right. But shaken and stirred he must have been out of extreme joy. It was this joy that would have been difficult to mask. Of course, for a good orator like Modi, nothing could have give him more fodder for talk than this. Once someone else has done his work, Modi can actually publicly do the reverse – apply fake balm as he did in his speech – and count on the same apologists to present Modi as the new symbol of peace and unity.

The IM has no business to disrupt Modi’s meetings or harm his followers. It has no business to even have a political view. It forgets that with all its follies, India is not a country that fights its political battles with violence. The opposition to Modi’s brand of politics is an ideological one….and there is no place for a terrorist organization like IM to be a part of it. Whether it is the BJP or the Congress or a 3^rd front government, the IM will always be targeted, and stay banned. Those who oppose the BJP don’t want it to lose because of the activities of outfits like the IM. They want it to lose because of its regressive ideology.

But here’s an important point to consider. Never in any of the past elections have there been such terror attacks on political rallies or riots, especially in rural areas. It’s only now, when Modi has ascended to the top in the BJP, that they have started. What’s the reason for this? Why is it that Modi makes dormant issues of religious divide come alive and become active? I cannot say this with proof but it seems logical that when someone has a past like he has, and when he unabashedly affixes the word “Hindu” before “nationalist”, he arouses those dormant spirits. But then that’s the strategy, isn’t it?

One other debate that must get revived is the need for the NCTC. The IB had apparently, even in this case, given leads to the Bihar police, but without any executive powers, it could do no more. The BJP has to answer why it continues to oppose the NCTC.

The real truth is that with every such incident, Newton’s 3^rd law of physics kicks in, and Modi benefits. “Agitate the Hindus and get their votes” is a sure-to-succeed political strategy. How does it matter who agitates the Hindu???? The IM has given Modi an advantage….

ISI will fail, but RG is dead right about ISI fishing in Muzaffarnagar….

Rahul Gandhi said that some IB official had told him that the ISI was combing for new recruits in Muzaffarnagar after the recent riots there. Narendra Modi attacked this statement of his, asking how the IB briefed him at all; and also asking him to name the youth recruited. I find these questions of Modi frivolous and silly. Forget how RG got his info. Forget the names of the specific youth. But isn’t it a fact that whenever a community – any community – is targeted, it sows the seeds of dissent within it? It’s not about Muslims alone.

But before I get into this particular subject, let me remind readers that the BJP and SAD had similarly panned RG when he said last year that 70% of Punjabi youth suffered from the menace of drugs. The deputy CM of Punjab had mocked RG the same way that Narendra Modi is mocking him now. But what was proved in the end? ET (http://tinyurl.com/ognz6gt) wrote this on Aug 19^th 2013: “Punjab's Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal lampooned him for being out of touch. But eight months later, the union home ministry has released data that shows Punjab as one of the country's worst affected states by narcotics, seeming backing the Congress scion's assertion. ET has accessed a home Ministry report that puts heroin seizures in Punjab in the three years to end-March 2013 at 813.57 kg, which may be worth Rs 40,000 crore”. Punjab health minister and BJP leader Madan Mohan Mittal said (http://tinyurl.com/qevxzcv): “These remarks not only lack reality but are derogatory and defamatory for the youth of Punjab”. So was RG right after all? Who was “out of touch” – Badal or RG? My arguments now will show how RG is perfectly right about his ISI comments as well.

Forget the specifics for a moment. Isn’t it a fact that since 2002, when Gujarat shamed India, Muslims in India have been feeling disillusioned with the BJP? Why only Muslims. Most Hindus were disillusioned after 2002, which is why they threw the BJP out of power in 2004. Isn’t it also true that ISI’s involvement in Indian terror acts has only increased since 2002? And isn’t it also a proven fact that the 2009 Mumbai terror attack was orchestrated by the ISI, most likely as a direct fall out of the 2002 Gujarat pogrom? Isn’t it also true that there have been hundreds of deaths caused by Islamic terrorism since Gujarat happened (780 as per http://tinyurl.com/p32x3t6). Isn’t it equally true that the Indian Mujahideen (IM) first came to light only in 2008, and has since been banned by many countries globally, again largely tapping into the angst of the Muslims post Godhra? Can we then discount the fact that when a community is targeted, it will naturally react in response? And is it questionable that an enemy across the border will tap into this disenchanted lot, especially the youth?

But like I said, it’s not about the Muslims alone. Most Muslims are as peace loving and nationalistic as Hindus are. Any community would react the way some members of the Muslim community did post Godhra. How can we forget the Khalistan movement of the 80s and early 90s, stoked in large measure by Operation Bluestar of 1984? Wikipedia says this “In January 1986, the Golden Temple was occupied by militants belonging to All India Sikh Students Federation and Damdami Taksal. On 26 January 1986, the gathering passed a resolution (gurmattā) favouring the creation of Khalistan. Subsequently, a number of rebel militant groups in favour of Khalistan waged a major insurgency against the government of India. Indian security forces suppressed the insurgency in the early 1990s”.

Do we have any doubts of ISI’s involvement in the Khalistan movement, even till this present date? India Today in its filing of November 5, 2011 (http://tinyurl.com/qachb8g ) wrote: “Wadhawa Singh Babbar remains busy plotting carnage against his home country with his Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI ) hosts. The 65-year-old grey-bearded head of perhaps the deadliest Khalistani terror group, Babbar Khalsa International (BKI), along with his ISI minders, remains engaged in trying to revive the long-defeated Khalistan movement in Punjab”. Again, why blame the Sikhs. Almost all of them are hugely peace loving and nationalistic.

Closer home to Narendra Modi’s Gujarat, isn’t it true that the ISI played with fire when it possibly attacked the Akshardham temple in 2003? Rediff.com reports (http://tinyurl.com/ps684l8) “As Gujarat observed the first anniversary of the Akshardham attack, the crime branch of the Ahmedabad police on Wednesday claimed the sensational terrorist strike was carried out at the behest of Pakistan's Inter Services Intelligence jointly by the Jaish-e-Mohammad and Lashkar-e-Tayiba”

I am not even going near J&K, where Pakistan’s ISI  is a key player, and where outfits like the JeM (Jaish – e – Mohammad) founded by India’s biggest enemy Maulana Masood Azhar – incidentally released by the BJP government at Kandahar in December 1999 – has been aided and supported, morally, militarily and financially by the ISI.

See RG’s statement in this context. ISI will surely attempt to play in Muzaffarnagar’s minefield. This does not mean that the Muslim youth will fall trap. Hopefully the Indian and UP governments will be able to assuage the hurt feelings (BJP may win this region electorally, but someone will have to bring peace back) of the people here.

One last point. It sounds really strange that a man accused of genocide in Gujarat should take up the cudgels on behalf of those killed in the very same genocide. It is farcical and laughable. For Modi, attacking RG is his priority. Thanks to his good oratory, he gets away most of the time. But the reality is that RG said nothing wrong. Rahul Gandhi was perfectly right. And no matter how hard Modi tries, he can never talk himself into the good books of the Muslims. Not until he makes genuine amends to his thinking. But if any BJP leader does that, we know what the RSS will do right? (Remember Advani’s Jinnah remarks?!).

The real truth is that forget the IB official who told RG whatever he did. Forget the names of the youth who ISI approached. The BJP, uncomfortable with the reality, is bound to divert attention towards such minor details. The fact is that the BJP’s communal politics does in fact increase opportunities for the ISI to fish in our internal matters. Be that in Muzaffarnagar or elsewhere. No one can deny that….

Stock market rally is because of Narendra Modi. Oh really??

Chidambaram must be squirming. Poor man, he’s been slogging it out for the last year and a half, trying to get important decisions taken. Now that the stock market has started responding, here comes Narendra Modi, the perpetual usurper of everything good, and takes the credit away. How exactly does Modi do this? I suspect through his PR overdrive and his over-eager followers (the gujarati-driven broker community).

If newspaper reports are to be believed, the markets are discounting the possibility (no, make that certainty) of Modi becoming PM in 2014. Really? How do these brilliant soothsayers know this? No opinion poll till date (with all their inbuilt faults) have said any such thing. All of them are in fact showing that the NDA is going to be woefully short of a majority. In fact they show that the NDA is going to be struggling to hit even the 200 mark. And everyone knows that very few parties want to tie up with them at this point in time. How then does this community of brokers know so much about the future, if not for the little “nudging” that APCO (Modi’s PR agency) or Modi’s own “chamchas” must be providing?

Modi’s motivated supporters offer evidence which wouldn’t pass muster with even morons. Apparently, the stock market has risen since the time Modi was anointed PM candidate. This data point might be true, but where is the correlationship between the two events? So many things have happened in the last few months. Can all of them claim they have influenced the movement of the sensex? The correlationship however exists between the work that Chidambaram and several other organs of the government have done since the same time.

Take Chidambaram himself first. He has been instrumental in setting up the CCI (Cabinet Committee of Investments) which has cleared projects worth more than Rs 3.5 lac crores. He has toured global business capitals and made pitches about the India story to global investors. He has pared government expenditure, first last year and then now, and reassured the markets that the fiscal deficit will be kept at 4.8% or lower. He has tweaked tax rates to drastically reduce gold imports, giving credence to his assertion that the CAD will be kept below $70 billion. And very importantly, he has brought in Raghuram Rajan as the RBI governor. Chidambaram is a silent worker; unlike the raucous Modi. This does not mean Narendra Modi can steal the credit away.

Now come to Raghuram Rajan. Everyone knows what the man has done since he took over in September. In fact, the maximum correlationship between the sensex and anything is with Rajan’s arrival. The man controlled the precipitous fall of the rupee in no time, bringing confidence back into the external sector. He launched the forex swap scheme bringing in $10 billion already. He allowed banks to borrow abroad to double the limit they were allowed to earlier. In short, he brought sense back into the senseless fall of the rupee. In recent times, the sensex has responded most to the fate of the rupee, not the fortunes of Narendra Modi.

Then the huge impact that the postponing of the US Fed’s QE program has had on the Indian markets is well established. This has been further aided by the appointment of Janet Yellen as the next Fed Governor. The day the Fed announced the postponement, the sensex soared 700+ points. It didn’t soar anything when Modi was announced as the PM candidate. Also, there has to be a certain honesty in politics. How is it possible that when the rupee was falling, the BJP blamed the Congress (remember the “now Sonia’s age, soon PM’s age” barb?), but when it recovered smartly, it is because of Narendra Modi?

There are two things that emerge. First, the Congress has got the economy moving again. Everyone agrees that the worst is behind and the future is better. Whether the growth ends up at 5% or a shade lower or higher is a matter of detail. The other thing is something that we all know. Narendra Modi has a well earned reputation for being a #feku. That’s been proven again.

The real truth is that the markets have risen because of an improving business scenario, and because the US Fed has delayed its pull back of the Quantitative Easing program. It has nothing to do with Narendra Modi. All that this shows is the desperation of the messiah to grab everything good the government does with both hands.

The difference between the Gujarat and anti-Sikh riots….

While watching another inane debate on a news channel last night, I was appalled by the attempt made by the anchor and the BJP spokesperson to compare the anti-Muslim Gujarat pogrom of 2002 with the anti-Sikh 1984 one. Of course, there are similarities –  one particular community was targeted; the government didn’t do enough to stop the carnage; and thousands died. However, that’s where the comparison ends. In the years that followed, the Congress apologized and took corrective steps; the BJP didn’t.

The Congress made amends (this post points out how); as a result, the Sikhs have forgiven the Congress. But the BJP has made no amends at all. In fact, it has gone the opposite way and made Godhra and Hindutva the centerpiece of its political strategy. Modi’s innings as Gujarat CM began with Godhra. There is no way he will abandon this. Or apologize for it. He thoroughly enjoys the love and affection fellow saffronites shower on him for this (remember he is called the Hindu Hriday Samrat?). But the Muslims have never forgiven the BJP. Nor have the Christians.

How did the Congress make amends? The Congress apologized to the Sikhs. Publicly. In words and in action. Sonia Gandhi made Manmohan Singh the PM even though no one would have given him that chance. The Sikhs felt assuaged. It was the Congress’s way of apologizing; by handing over the most powerful position in the country to a Sikh. Not once, but twice. Of course, there were political reasons that Sonia had for doing so; but she grabbed the chance. Of course, Manmohan Singh’s brilliant record as a bureaucrat; his courageous reforms under Narasimha Rao; his intellectual prowess; and his apolitical nature all made him the “natural” choice. In making Manmohan Singh the PM, Sonia hit two birds with one stone. Not only did she give the nation an able PM (forget what the saffronites think), she also offered an olive branch to the Sikh community.

Did the Sikhs forgive the Congress? Yes. Since 1984, the Sikhs in Punjab voted the Congress to power twice for a total of 10 years; the SAD – the party of the Sikhs – managed only slightly better at thrice for 12 years (before the current tenure started). The loss of the Congress in the recent polls in the state was considered an unexpected result; and was attributed to factors not related to 1984. Had the Congress won Punjab this time (as was expected), it would have been in power longer than the SAD.

The BJP, on the other hand, made no amends. It grudgingly abandoned its hardline Hindutva for a while under coalition compulsions, but now with Modi at the helm, it has very much revived a more vicious version of it. 1) Narendra Modi has never apologized to the Muslims, using guttural language instead, to obfuscate the matter, and even hurt them more (remember the puppy bit?). 2) The BJP routinely abused its police in Gujarat while probing the riots (after having severely abused it during the riots); as well as the state judiciary which had become completely saffronized. Things became so bad that investigative functions had to be handed over to an SC appointed SIT and the CBI; and court hearings had to be moved outside the state. 3) The state continued its persecution of Muslims after 2002. One after another fake encounters was carried out in the state. 4) The state government refused to pony up monies for the restoration of mosques destroyed during the riots (eventually the SC forced it to do so). 5) When the BJP’s Minister of Home during the riots Haren Pandya was murdered, the state made attempts (and succeeded initially) to put the blame on innocent muslims from Hyderabad. All this indicates that the BJP is not contrite. This has helped it win power repeatedly in Gujarat and MP. But it has caused it to lose power everywhere else.

The people have repeatedly punished the BJP for Gujarat. At the Center, the BJP was booted out in 2004 immediatley after the riots (though the BJP expected to win because of its India Shining campaign, just like it thinks it will win now). In UP – where it all started with the demolition of the Babri Masjid in 1992 – the party has never wielded power since the Babri days. In Maharashtra, where the equally saffron Shiv Sena is its ally, the BJP has ruled only once for 4 years since 1995; and never after Godhra. In Bihar, its ally, the JD(U), broke off precisely for Modi’s Gujarat record. If today the BJP is a pariah, it is thanks to its non-contrite image.

The BJP says it is has been fair to the Muslims. It says it made APJ Abdul Kalam the President. That was good; but it looks like an exception never to be repeated. Can we imagine the BJP ever making a Muslim or Christian its party President, forget its PM candidate? In fact, Modi hasn’t even given seats in the state elections to Muslim candidates. He hasn’t done it in the past and he is not going to do it in the future. At the national level, how many Muslim faces does one see in the BJP? Except for a few “show pieces”, none. How many Christian faces are there in the party? None. The BJP is proud of its staunch Hindu character. Even here, it remains exclusivist and strongly Brahminical. The BJP’s inherent nature is to polarize. It polarized the country on the Hindu-Muslim axis. It will polarize Hindus on the Brahmin-others axis in the future. Hindus worry about this. That’s why the lower castes never vote for it.

One last point. BJP supporters also mention the several Hindu-Muslim riots that have taken place in the country since independence in an attempt to shame the Congress and show it is as not secular. But the problem with this is that the people have never blamed the Congress for having caused these riots. That the riots happened is indeed shameful, but they didn’t happen because of the Congress. The BJP on the other hand is accused of having directly caused the Gujarat riots. And Babri. And the encounter killings. And more. All riots are unfortunate but when the CM acts, the casualties are smaller (Assam had less than 100 deaths, UP less than 50). When the CM looks the other way, the numbers are obviously higher (2000 died in Gujarat).

The real truth is that there is no comparison between 2002 and 1984. The Congress remains culturally, religiously and socially heterogeneous; the BJP a Brahminical monolith. The Congress’s heterogeneity forced it to apologize to the Sikhs; the BJP’s homogeneity compels it not to do so to the Muslims. The two parties are incomparable; the two incidents likewise.

Rahul Gandhi opposes RTI amendments …..BJP plays opportunistic game

The BJP played opportunistic politics on the subject of convicted MPs/MLAs, by privately supporting the move to overturn the SC order, but publicly opposing it (the ordinance route), creating a public impression that the party was in favor of clean politics. A similar charade is now being orchestrated on the amendments to the RTI Act, which seek to exclude political parties from its ambit.

The BJP has perfected this style – of speaking both, for and against an issue at the same time. Like on the Food Security Bill, a section of the party spoke strongly against it, calling it a political move. It cited frivolous reasons like inability to procure large quantities of grains, high fiscal burden etc. to justify its opposition. It tried everything to stall the bill from being passed. A different section however claimed that the Chhatisgarh model was even more generous than the Center’s proposed law. That the Congress was fooling the public etc etc. This style works well for the party, protecting it against any unanticipated public opprobrium, providing it an escape valve in case of public criticism. In the case of the convicted MPs/MLAs for instance, the party supported the government initially, then gauged that the public mood was against it, so made the claim that it had always opposed it.

In the case of amendments to the RTI Act as well, the BJP is playing this exact same game. Its leaders have expressed opposing views on the subject.

The first public comment from the BJP was reported in the Indian Express on the 4^th June, immediately after the CIC passed its order including political parties under the RTI: “BJP is not against anything that brings transparency and accountability which is equally applicable to all. We will follow the law," said BJP spokesman Capt Abhimanyu” (http://tinyurl.com/q72svv7).

Later, on 5^th September, the Hindustan Times reported: “Sources say senior BJP leader Arun Jaitley suggested at the BJP’s Parliamentary Party meet on Tuesday that rather than exempting just political parties from the ambit of the Right to Information Act, all non-government bodies that are public authorities because they accept government funds be exempted. The logic: it could be legally untenable to exempt just political parties and not similarly funded entities — like NGOs, clubs etc — from the law’s purview. Either they should all be out of it or all should be included in it, his argument went” (http://tinyurl.com/pdazw3v). Aha, so a well thought through strategy…..of supporting the amendments right?

But reporting on the same party meeting, the ET wrote this on 4^th September: “BJP leader Arun Jaitley has told his colleagues that the party's support to amendments to the Right to Information Act is not "ethically or constitutionally tenable" while Sushma Swaraj has defended the decision, exposing the sharp differences within the main opposition over its strategy in Parliament” (http://tinyurl.com/nvmnfnr). It appears from this that it was actually Sushma Swaraj who supported the amendments and Arun Jaitley who opposed them. The BJP never issued any clarifications to these divergent media reports. Why? Because it found it convenient to let the confusion prevail. Further, maybe jostling for the holy space with Jaitley, Sushma Swaraj was reported by TOI as saying “We told the government that lawmakers excluding themselves from RTI doesn't send the right signal” (http://tinyurl.com/ojjryaw). Convenient. How very convenient!

As public opinion turned against the amendments, the BJP took a public stand against them (but continued to privately support them). It opposed the bill in Parliament, demanding that it be referred to the Standing Committee. Why did it not just demand that the bill be withdrawn? Without the BJP’s support, the bill would be a non-starter since others like the TMC and BJD had already been opposing it. But the BJP preferred to refer it to the standing committee, where as everyone knows the proceedings are held outside of public glare. The BJP would be able to support the amendments there. The same trick again: oppose in public, support in private. Keep options open.

As further evidence of this, consider the fact that Narendra Modi has not even bothered to opine on this subject. One reason could be that he is keeping his options open; the other could be that he anyways doesn’t care much for the RTI. Remember, Gujarat has just 1-2 state information commissioners, while even smaller states like Punjab have 10 or so. But if public opinion goes strongly against the amendments, expect Modi to make a fiery speech blaming the Congress!

Media reports have now indicated that Rahul Gandhi is opposing the proposed amendments, going against his party’s current line, preferring that financial matters be made open to RTI queries, but other confidential matters – appointing of candidates etc – be kept out. Now that Rahul Gandhi has spoken, the BJP can be expected to make a funny statement like “we forced the Congress to change its stand”! See the deception???!

The real truth is that the BJP has no opinion of its own. It exists only as an antithesis of the Congress. It opposes everything the Congress does. The only place where it does have an opinion is on Hindutva. That’s the only thing that differentiates it from other parties.….

The whole world is now laughing at Modi!

Modi, as expected, did a u-turn on his Unnao gold hunt position. Two days back, he had said “The whole world is laughing at us… Somebody dreamt and the government has launched an excavation”. Yesterday, he retracted, tweeting (as translated into English by TOI) “Lakhs of people have had faith in saint Shobhan Sarkar over the years. I salute his renunciation”. Hahahaha!

Why do I say “as expected”? Because, no matter how hard Modi tries to publicly distance himself from sadhus and sants, he just cannot seem to do that long enough. Every now and then, he is back to reassuring his “core” constituency that he hasn’t “turned”. Which is why, he has kept his party’s promise of constructing a Ram temple in Ayodhya alive. It’s a “non-negotiable” apparently. I don’t know what that means considering that the SC is already seized of the matter. Will Modi’s government bring a new law to overturn an adverse SC order if one comes? Or is it just another of Modi’s #feku claims?

For Modi, the opportunity to mock the Congress (but why?) for the ASI expedition in Unnao was temporarily more tempting than addressing his core community. Once that jab was made, he suddenly had to worry about the strong reaction from the swamy’s followers. Hence the retraction. So what if the world laughs!

But this is not the first time the world has laughed at Modi. Everytime he mouths some “facts”, the world laughs. Its now become an instinctive reaction. It’s like when a stand-up comedian says even the most plain, boring statement, the audience first laughs, then wonders about what he has spoken! Well, Modi has “earned” himself this reputation, and the #feku tag in the process. When he said China spent 20% of its GDP on education, little did he expect the media to pay attention to such minor details. And the Congress to point out that actually the number was only 3.93%, and that India spent more than China did (4.2%). Besides, and this is why the world really laughed, the spend was more during Congress rule than during NDA’s (1.67%)!

Or when Modi spoke about Shashi Tharoor’s “Rs 50 crore girlfriend”, or that “Gujarati women are figure conscious, hence they are malnourished”, he induced peels of laughter around the world. Equally, when he thunders at Pakistan and China, threatening them as it were, and exposes exactly how much he knows of international diplomacy – which is precisely zero – the world sits back at laughs. If this is the PM that India is going to get, India is going to soon become a comedy circus! And every time Modi will speak, it will be like downtown London’s famous stand-up comedy act!

But then if there is any pattern emerging from Modi’s speeches, it is that he wants to disassociate himself as much from the NDA period as from the last ten years of Congress rule. For him, even the NDA period was wasted. Modi has never been a fan of Vajpayee’s; and he has never forgotten that Vajpayee wanted him sacked as Gujarat CM for the Gujarat riots of 2002. As for his relationship with Advani…..well, the less said the better. Ditto with Sushma Swaraj, Yashwant Sinha and Murli Manohar Joshi. What better way to collectively hit them than by disowning the NDA period? That’s why when Modi speaks, it is about “his” Gujarat, never about “NDA’s” India. He couldn’t care if NDA spent more or less than Congress. They are both anathema for him!

It’s a fact that people familiar with Gujarat’s politics know very well. Modi has virtually decimated every leader in the state. Be it Keshubhai Patel or Shanker Singh Vaghela or Haren Pandya, there is only one way for any opponent of Modi’s. Out! Does anyone even know who would take over as Gujarat CM if Modi became PM? No! There is someone called Anandiben Shah who no one has heard of; and then there is his spokesman there…..what’s his name again?! Modi’s insecurities, his narcissistic “I, me, myself” trait, are so dominant that he cannot tolerate anyone standing up to him. Even if that includes his own partymen or his “friends” in the RSS/VHP. Sorry, Modi has no friends. He is the boss after all! Ask Sanjay Joshi of the RSS that. Or ask Pravin Togadia of the VHP (http://tinyurl.com/l843nsd) that.

Coming back to Unnao, what was the reason to mock the Congress? The ASI already clarified that it was conducting the excavation based on the Geological Survey of India’s report. “As the government faced flak over the excavation by ASI, the Geological Survey of India (GSI) came to its defence, saying the broad findings of a study indicated at presence of metal underneath” reported the TOI on Sunday, 20^th October. The GSI said “This prominent non-magnetic anomalous zone indicative of possible gold, silver and/or some alloys, etc, may be tested by excavation for further interest at the specified site”. Now unless Modi knows more than the GSI, there is no way he could have mocked the Congress.

The real truth is that the world is indeed laughing at India. With Modi as the BJP’s PM candidate, that is all that the world can do. But most Indians are secretly laughing too. As Javed Akhtar, noted poted and RS member, tweeted “Paki fundos are dying to see Modi as Indian PM. They believe it will confirm their 2 nation theory and justify their bias and hatred”. It’s the same sentiment that many globally are sharing….

Our “experts” get Rupee, Fisc, Sensex wrong…..maybe even 2014 polls?

Forecasting is a difficult business. And that is why we leave it to the so called “experts”. But our experts have shown themselves to be utter nincompoops. More than any expertise, it is “herd mentality”…..or worse, political motivation….that drives these experts.

Rupee: When the rupee was falling, and had touched Rs 63.33 to the $ on 20^th August, the BJP was having a field day, mocking that the rupee had crossed “Sonia’s age” and would soon cross “Manmohan Singh’s”. Forget the BJP: their response to most issues is facetious, driven by the urge to take jabs at the Congress more than to make an intelligent expression of their own views or ideas (which I doubt they are capable of). But what about the experts?

Well, the venerable Deutsche Bank said on that day that the rupee would cross Rs 70 by September 2013. There was the equally venerable Moneycontrol.com which went a step ahead and said on 29^th August that the rupee would touch 75 to a dollar. Why this “boldness” of prediction on moneycontrol’s part? Because the rupee had just crossed its lowest ever point of Rs 68 the day before. If this is not herd mentality, what is?! Neither Deutsche Bank nor Moneycontrol got it right of course as the rupee corrected itself from artificially driven-down levels. Both these experts were utterly wrong.

Fiscal deficit: Back in December 2012, three months before that fiscal year ended, one expert after another was suggesting that the fiscal deficit would end up at 6% or thereabouts. Their reason for this expert opinion: trend analysis of the past few months! And herd mentality of course!

Sunil Sinha, Principal Economist of Crisil predicted that the fiscal deficit would end at 5.8-5.9% that year. Not to be outdone, Rupa Rege Nitsure, Chief Economist (an even bigger title than that of Sunil Sinha’s?!) of the Bank of Baroda predicted that the fiscal deficity would end at 6%. The source for both these is http://tinyurl.com/mf3zgo2. Such expertise I say! So much belief in Chidambaram! I wonder if both these experts were not mixing their own political beliefs with their professional jobs! The reality of course was that Chidambaram succeeded in keeping the fiscal below 5%, just like he had said he would do.

Sensex: Now this has to be the most favorite topic for experts to forecast! No, make that the 2^nd most favorite job….the favorite is the next one I will write about. Well, sensex forecasters are a particularly driven lot, outdoing each other with ever optimistic or ever pessimistic forecasts all the time. When the sensex is going down, all of them predict it will touch new lows, and vice-versa.

Religare Capital, one more of the “venerable” types (by now, I wonder if such adjectives should even be used to describe such experts!) predicted on 26^th September this year that the sensex would end March 2014 at 17000 (http://tinyurl.com/mrlt74m). As if in salute to this forecast, the sensex has risen to 20,800 odd levels!

Not surprisingly, experts are now predicting that the sensex will cross its life-time high shortly! What is very funny is that one expert is even offering a reason for this buoyancy. Apparently, the market has factored in the BJP’s success in 2014!

Poll forecasts:

This one is clearly our most favorite pastime, especially towards the end of a government’s tenure! And this is one area where our pollsters get it wrong most of the time! But there is one particular poll that gets it wrong with remarkable consistency! That is the “Mood of the Nation” poll undertaken by the “venerable” India Today.

Sample its forecasts ahead of the last three general elections:

December 1998: Congress+ would get 305 (!), BJP+ 135. Reality: BJP put in its best performance ever, and formed the government.

April 2004: BJP+ would get 282 seats (!), Congress just 165. This poll was just a month before the elections…..and still! Reality: Congress+ got 218 seats, BJP+ just 181.

April 2009: Again, just one month before the actual polling. The magazine said UPA would get 200, NDA 177. Result: UPA 262, NDA 158.

If there is one thing that is predictable is that the final result will be the exact opposite of the forecast! To be fair to India Today, it is not the only one getting it wrong all the time. Almost everyone gets it wrong most of the time. Everyone gets some pieces right, and that’s why they start crooning that they are the best. In the process, they fool their viewers/readers, not that they really care about it. That’s why I read the current polls predicting a rout for the Congress and a sure win for the BJP with hope in my heart!

The real truth I suspect is that poll forecasting is politically motivated. Most polls are unfortunately conducted by media groups, and all of them have their preferences. None of them even want to get to the truth. Because if they did, they would recognize that sample sizes of 25000-50000 cannot be adequate in a heterogeneous land like ours. That too in a voting system where candidates win with less than 30% of the votes polled…..